Graham Alexander should consider formation change to turn Preston North End's fortunes around

Graham Alexander has said he will make 'tweaks' and 'changes' to his Preston North End side if things aren't working, and they aren't working.

A quarter of the season in now and Preston are staring down the barrel of a long, hard and many fear futile relegation fight.

A new-manager bounce has not blessed the club following the arrival of Alexander, who has not sugar-coated things. He does not have 'magic dust' to suddenly make things better, it's going to take time and a lot of hard work.

It's been three defeats out of three so far, nine goals conceded, just one scored and only two more shots on target. North End are in 24th place, effectively six points from safety due to goal difference already.

Looking for positives, Alexander did point towards his side's improved competitiveness at Wrexham, saying they had chances when the game was still in reach to get something from it, before a second capitulation in a row.

There were certainly moments. Andrew Hughes put an early header wide, Johnny Kenny had two chances he couldn't get on target after the break and he then teed up Brad Potts for a golden opportunity, but the veteran, making his first appearance of the season after injury, could only put it tamely into the building site behind the goal.

Yet, these chances, and the actual goal scored by Devine, only amounted to an xG of 0.72. Better than the 0.58 against Millwall and 0.49 at Birmingham, but still not good enough.

Preston rank surprisingly high for XG in the Championship in 16th place, but that's already down from 13th after the last two matches and over the last five games they plummet to 23rd, with only Norwich City below them.

Preston have simply not been creating enough quality chances in Alexander's first three games and the formation has been one of the key factors.

Preston's attacking issues in back-three formation

Alexander appeared to suggest he would change his system ahead of facing Wrexham, but he ended up sticking with the 3-4-3. Even if there were positive moments, it did not work in the long run.

Defensive mistakes have been costly throughout the season and no formation can litigate for them, but Preston are struggling to attack in the current shape. You can't win if you don't score.

There just aren't enough bodies getting forward, leaving the front three isolated with little option but to keep hold of the ball for as long as possible when they get it.

Kenny, Devine and Callum Lang all showed sharp touches at Wrexham, but they mostly had to take it upon themselves to run at the opposition to try to create something from nothing.

On the few occasions when the wing-backs were able to get up in support, they actually all linked well and dangerous crosses were delivered. But it did not happen anywhere near enough.

With the back-line constantly launching high balls forward, it was impossible for the players on the ground to keep up. Even if they could move at those speeds, they would have to immediately come back again when the ball inevitably wasn't won by nimble forwards up against towering centre-backs and came right back.

Whether the defenders were instructed to go long or did it out of fearful instinct when under pressure, it didn't help. It just invited more.

Preston were constantly hemmed in. Unable to push up and seemingly hesitant to do so when the chance did arrive, either through design or a lack of confidence.

Wrexham showed it can be done. They played a back-three as well and were constantly throwing bodies up the field.

There have been brief moments when Preston have been able to, especially in the first half against Millwall, but the stamina, pace and attacking quality of the wing-backs is crucial to the system working. Since Harry Clarke went off injured at half-time in that game, it hasn't clicked for a sustainable period since.

Perhaps Caleb Wiley could be the key to making it work when he is fit to return but, if not, a formation change may be the best course.

A back four could help get more players forward for PNE

Alexander has said he is not one to 'chop and change' things as there isn't enough time to work on new game models with such limited training time. Preston at least have a week at Euxton before the next game at home to West Brom where a change could be worked on.

The new manager has also said that there are two ways to defend: "You can sit back and let the opposition come at you, or you can attack them first and make them defend.

"We discovered over the years, myself and Chris [Lucketti], we feel much [more] comfortable being like that and actually attacking the team as much as possible."

Preston are not attacking enough as a whole, including the wing-backs and midfielders, to lighten the load on a stressed back-line.

If they're struggling to get forward, then they should be placed further forward to start with.

A formation with a back-four base - be it 4-4-1-1, 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3, whatever - will immediately help that by lowering the burden on the wing-backs having to marshal the whole length of the pitch on their own and having wingers, who have more attacking prowess, already higher up the flanks.

Stanley Mills will be back from suspension against West Brom, and he is clearly better suited to a more traditional wide role than one in which he also has to constantly think about what's happening behind him.

It's less clear who plays on the left, with no obvious pacey option, but Andrija Vukcevic has a great cross on him, Callum Lang can operate there and there is a clamour for Andy Moran to get a chance.

Full-backs can still attack from a back-four, too, of course, which ensures Alexander could still get the overloads he wants to see on the flanks, which have been few and far between since Clarke's injury.

Such a formation change would also get Devine into a more central position and closer to Kenny, so the pair can start to build an attacking relationship. It was fortuitous with Kenny’s deflected shot, but they did combine for the goal at Wrexham.

It may seem counter-intuitive to take a defender out of a side that is shipping so many goals but, as Alexander says, if they can spend more time attacking, then they will get to spend less time defending.

If the defence is going to concede goals regardless of how many defenders are on the field, with no clean sheet in a record 27 games, one may as well make way so Preston are at least better going forward.

For over five years, since Frankie McAvoy took over from Alex Neil in March 2021 and then under Ryan Lowe and Paul Heckingbottom, Preston have largely played with a back-three.

It's time for that to change.