Why political eyes are all on Wigan this week as Makerfield goes to the polls

Little more than a month ago, most people in Britain had never heard the word Makerfield before, let alone know where it was on a map.

But that rapidly changed from May 14 onwards when the MP for the Wigan borough constituency – and it is a constituency not a town or village – announced he was stepping down and it became the focus of huge political and media attention.

Josh Simons had only been the area’s Labour representative since the landslide general election of 2024, but he said he was stepping aside to give Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham a route back into Parliament (he had previously represented neighbouring Leigh in the Commons).

The reason – although largely dodged at first – was ultimately to let Burnham have a tilt at his party’s leadership and thus seize the keys to 10 Downing Street from Prime Minister Keir Starmer whose popularity has plummeted since sailing into office less than two years ago.

Polls were already suggesting that Burnham would win a leadership contest hands down; one reason, perhaps, why he had been denied a chance to stand in the Denton and Gorton by-election (won by the Greens) in February. However, the vote to get him into that position to challenge, was far less clear cut.

While Simons had won the seat with a decent majority (around 5,400), it wasn’t overwhelming. And since then, as Labour soon struggled to maintain its 2024 popularity, Reform UK came increasingly to the fore.

Only days before Simons stepped down, there had been a rout at Wigan Town Hall, Reform winning all but one of the 25 council seats up for grabs, mainly from Labour, and polls were showing that even given the popularity of Burnham compared to Starmer, this could still prove a very tight, local race.

Labour’s national executive committee dared not block Burnham’s path to the polls this time, but it did pose an odd question to the electorate that if they didn’t like Keir Starmer, then the quickest way to get rid of him could be to vote for his party colleague Burnham rather than the opposition.

Reform UK argue that Starmer is toast whether Burnham wins or not because other politicians, already in the Commons, are queueing up to replace him.

Reform, as they had at the general election, put forward “plucky plumber” Rob Kenyon as their candidate, only a couple of weeks after he had been installed as a councillor. And the party’s leader Nigel Farage has made several trips to the constituency in the past month to give his wholehearted and big profile support.

14 candidates

In total there are 14 candidates contesting the seat, but there is a consensus that the poll is really a two-horse race, with Labour losing little support to the Greens or the Lib-Dems while Reform risks surrendering votes to the further right Restore Britain. There have been two very different approaches to the two main contenders’ campaigns.

Andy Burnham has avoided attacks on opposition parties while playing on his long political pedigree, which includes high office in government, representing some of the Makerfield constituency before when boundaries were different and he was MP for Leigh, and his time as Greater Manchester Mayor.

Rob Kenyon has put himself forward as the “ordinary working man” rather than a “career politician,” claiming that many people are fed up of the latter, and there has also been criticism of Labour policies.

The polls have continued to show that neither one nor the other party is pulling away.

And of course there has been colossal media attention, not just from big national names in broadcast and print, but also abroad.

After all, this by-election could change the course of British politics. If Burnham wins, then we could have a new Prime Minister in Downing Street within weeks and it could be he attending the next G7 summit.

If he loses, then Starmer may have a better chance of hanging on. Those different outcomes could also have a bearing on the success and popularity of Reform in the future.

Huge demand

So, no wonder Wigan Council received no fewer than 250 applications for media accreditation for results night! In fact so high has been the interest that the count has had to be switched from its traditional venue – Robin Park Sports Centre – to the much bigger Edge near Wigan Pier. Even then, though, the local authority has had to turn down many of the applications due to lack of space.

And so on Thursday June 18, between 7am and 10pm, the people of Makerfield – there are about 82,000 eligible to vote – will head to one of 33 polling stations around the constituency to cast their votes. At some point on Friday morning, perhaps at 2am or 3am – maybe much later if there is need for a re-count – we will have a clearer political picture of Britain.

• The by-election candidates in full are: Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats), Count Binface (Count Binface Party), Andy Burnham (Labour and Co-operative Party), Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party), John Dyer (independent), Ed Gemmell (Climate Party), Paul Gould (independent), Howling Laud Hope (Official Monster Raving Loony Party), Rob Kenyon (Reform UK), Robert Pownall (independent), Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain), Sarah Wakefield (Green Party), Peter Ward (Rejoin EU Bring in PR) and Michael Winstanley (Conservative).