Battle lines drawn under European Union

Into battle, mes braves!
1995 library filer of Chris Moncrieff. Photo by Peter Smith/PA1995 library filer of Chris Moncrieff. Photo by Peter Smith/PA
1995 library filer of Chris Moncrieff. Photo by Peter Smith/PA

Indeed, the rival factions wasted no time after Saturday’s historic Cabinet meeting to embark on the fray that will rage until the in/out EU Referendum on June 23.

But it will not only – as David Cameron so rightly says – be a once-in-a-lifetime event. It could also have a dramatic effect on the leadership of the Conservative Party and, indeed, the next incumbent of 10 Downing Street.

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The repercussions, therefore, of this referendum could well have a far wider impact on domestic politics than whatever is now envisaged.

A decision to back Brexit on June 23 would be a huge blow to Cameron and would have a gravely damaging, and possibly devastating effect, on his leadership of the party, and, far more importantly, his tenure in Downing Street.

For how can he possibly continue to run the country as Prime Minister if the electorate have dished his passionate desire to remain in the EU? It would be a nigh-on an impossible situation for him. He has taken a huge gamble.

And it would open the door for Michael Gove, the Justice Secretary, who at the weekend signed up to the Brexit camp to make a serous bid for the leadership.

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Gove is reported to have had clandestine talks with London’s Mayor Boris Johnson – who has been annoyingly equivocal on this issue.

However, Johnson “came out” at the weekend saying he was joining the Brexit campaign – an announcement that created a bigger stir than I think it warranted.

Meanwhile, a victory for Cameron would not only be a huge relief to the Prime Minister, but a big boost for the Home Secretary, Theresa May, who has publicly joined the Premier’s team and whose prospects of becoming the next Tory leader would be increased immeasurably by such an outcome.

And what of Chancellor George Osborne? Will he become more assertive as the campaign gathers momentum?

We shall see.

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It is all to play for. And I for one would not care to risk my life savings on the outcome, certainly not at the present state of play.

But whatever the result, it will have an enduring effect on the future of British political life.