Paul Heckingbottom cannot be surprised by Preston North End exit as the club face a future-defining decision

There was so much optimism in the air. The away fans serenaded a grinning Paul Heckingbottom and his squad. People were starting to believe.

Since then, PNE’s results have nosedived, to put it kindly. It was no surprise, therefore, to see their statement on Sunday, announcing that Heckingbottom had left after a little over two years at Deepdale, along with assistant Stuart McCall.

Those three points at Ashton Gate feel like a distant memory now. That was the last time PNE recorded back-to-back wins. Frustration has been building up ever since, and while the reasons behind such a drop-off aren’t as simple as one single factor, the contrast between then and now are stark.

In 2026, the Lilywhites have won seven, drawn six and lost 19 of their 32 games. Across a season, that is relegation form.

PNE’s statement made clear that results across the whole calendar year had been taken into consideration when reviewing Heckingbottom’s position.

Under the current ownership, North End have not been a sacking club. They have afforded managers plenty of time to turn things around and have generally been cautious about dismissing them too soon. Alex Neil and Frankie McAvoy left in the March and December of their respective seasons despite loud calls for them to be relieved of their duties much earlier.

Two years is still a long stint in the life of a modern-day manager, but this time round, North End have acted swiftly and uncharacteristically early on in the season.

However, after a 1-0 loss to Lincoln City on Saturday, it felt very much like that was the only possible outcome. Give Heckingbottom another week and that would have been another seven days of apathy around the club and the fan base. It would be delaying the inevitable.

During his time in charge, there have been, in all the right ways, some memorable games. The aforementioned win over the Robins is high up there when you consider the importance of it at the time, as is that 3-0 victory over Burnley in the FA Cup. The derby day triumph over Blackburn Rovers last weekend - the outgoing duo’s first and ultimately last win over the Lancashire rivals - still feels sweet despite the frustrations and poor results that have come before, and followed, so far this season.

That said, a win rate of 27.5% - the third lowest this century ahead of Darren Ferguson and Graham Westley’s - is alarming. Even more striking is how those wins were spread out over his tenure. 19 of his 30 victories in charge were achieved over two separate four-month periods.

Consistency came in odd bursts. If PNE won a game, they often went unbeaten for another three or four. Flip that around, though, and it was exactly the same. One loss could start weeks of waiting for a win. North End went a month, or even longer, without three points far too many times under this management team. There was rarely a middle ground.

Whether it was in a positive or negative way, it would be understandable if you have looked at the league table most weeks over the last two years and asked yourself: ‘how have we got there?’

The relegation scare towards the end of 2024/25 is a prime example. On course for another season of mid-table security in early April and, by the end of the month, PNE’s Championship status hung in the balance after utter capitulation. Again, this year, North End fell from fourth to 17th in little over two months, eventually finishing in 14th.

There was so much positivity around his appointment back in August 2024, and understandably so. He had a promotion to the Premier League on his CV with Sheffield United and, at that early stage of the season, someone with such an achievement - who was available - was hard to come by. Yes, they were well equipped personnel-wise to challenge for promotion, but off-the-field there was concern and uncertainty for large parts of his time there. Blades fans saw him as a top class operator and continue to hold him in high regard.

Unfortunately, though, this just hasn’t worked out. Heckingbottom has been the most backed PNE manager in the club’s history and yet there hasn’t been an awful lot to show for it. After the final few months of last season brought back a sense of déjà vu and false dawns, the opening month of this campaign has compounded those frustrations.

This has been PNE’s joint worst start to a season in their history, and the former boss knew that things needed to change. He wasn’t making excuses; he was aware the only way to improve the atmosphere around the club and prove that things were clicking was to win games of football. He will undoubtedly be disappointed that he won’t get another opportunity to turn things around, but he shouldn’t be surprised.

There have been a number of red flags in these opening seven games. Constant changes of shape, whether that be from one week to the next or in-game, can only breed at least slight confusion among the players, especially when the manager is so public about being unable to commit to a certain formation.

The last three goals conceded by North End in their defeats to Lincoln and Watford have all come within the five minutes after Heckingbottom and his staff had made a substitution. Many of those changes have raised eyebrows in the stands and behind TV or phone screens. The argument that PNE were in control of both those games prior to subs being made is difficult to dispute.

For all the criticism of Heckingbottom in recent weeks and further back, another thing that cannot be disputed is the passion he had while managing North End. Transfer windows in particular were when you could really see the urgency in his eyes and the enthusiasm he had for the future. He spoke about wanting the club to become more savvy in the market, highlighting the success of Millwall and Coventry City’s models in the last few years, closer to a ‘sell-to- buy’ style of business.

You can never be one hundred percent sure when you’re not part of the inner circle, but it seemed Heckingbottom remained fairly popular with the players. While the squad must always take a share of the responsibility for any dip in form, it’s clear that this wasn’t a dressing room revolt or anything close.

Many new signings have made a big deal of Heckingbottom’s first conversation with them and said that he was an important factor in them joining. As much as that can be viewed as cliche footballer speak, he has managed to help win over players who will have been in high demand this summer - Alfie Devine, Harry Clarke and Johnny Kenny to name a few.

He has spoken before about being ‘shattered’ after work every day during his interim spell at Sheffield United, before taking the reins permanently just a matter of months later. It is clear he puts everything into the task at hand and that has been evident at PNE. In a results-based game, though, good intentions and hard work can only get you so far.

As a football manager, you are under pressure 24/7 whether you are flying high or looking over your shoulder. Heckingbottom was very understanding of the extra weight placed on him in the last few weeks. He has always been pleasant to speak with in press conferences and, at times, a very interesting listen. There was the odd question to which his response would be a tad spikier, but if anything it showed how much he wanted to reverse the slide. He and Stuart McCall go with my best wishes.

The next three weeks are crucial for North End. In an ideal world, an appointment is sorted quickly enough for the new manager to have ample time during the international break to evaluate the squad and begin to work with them. A couple of weeks without a game, but with fresh ideas and a clean slate, could do wonders. At the same time, this is a major decision for the football club - the biggest in quite some time - and it could shape PNE’s direction for many a year.

The amount of money spent this summer demonstrates a level of ambition that should be enticing to most Championship-standard managers. That, coupled with the stability of the club - in the sense that it has been in the second-tier since 2015 - will give prospective applicants a reason to express their interest: the chance to break that promotion duck.

In the last 10 years, PNE have had four men at the helm and have gone down clear routes with all. Heckingbottom and Alex Neil were hired in the hope that they could eventually repeat their promotion success at Deepdale. Ryan Lowe was an up-and-coming manager whose natural next step was a Championship challenge, and Frankie McAvoy was a calculated risk, albeit one that didn’t pay off.

PNE’s ultimate goal hasn’t been achieved and they are yet to experience Premier League football. The question remains: what direction will the club go in next to try and change that?

Will they go down the tried and tested route, appointing a British Championship or League One manager? Will they think outside the box and bring in a European coach? Could they bring in a big name? And how involved will a potential new owner be in those decisions? Only time will tell.