The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether coronavirus restrictions in England can be lifted next month, experts have said.
This comes as areas across the North West including, Blackburn and Darwen, Burnley, Bolton and Manchester have all seen a sustained surge in new cases of Covid, including the Indian variant.
Last year Government ministers made decisions around local restrictions using the following criteria:
- the rate of Covid cases per 100,000 people
- the rate of increase
- the prevalence among people aged 60 and over
- the positivity rate – which is the proportion of tests that come back positive (National average 0.7 as of May 20).
- pressure on the NHS
Based on last year's local lockdown criteria (with the exception of 'pressure on the NHS'), our data experts have identified the top 20 council areas currently at risk areas across the country, nine of which are in the North West.
Below are the council areas across Lancashire and the North West currently most at risk of local lockdown:
9. Rochdale
In Rochdale the current rate of infection is 52.2 per 100,000 people, with cases increasing at a rate of 31.8% in the last seven days. The case rate among the over 60s is currently 14.3, while the positivity rate is 2.
10. Trafford
In Trafford the current rate of infection is 53.5 per 100,000 people, with cases increasing at a rate of 44.2% in the last seven day. The case rate among the over 60s is currently 13, while the positivity rate is 2.6.
11. Wigan
In Wigan the current rate of infection is 47.2 per 100,000 people, with cases increasing at a rate of 34.9% in the last seven days. The case rate among the over 60s is currently 12.3, while the positivity rate is 1.7.
12. Pendle
In Pendle the current rate of infection is 48.9 per 100,000 people, with cases increasing at a rate of 25.1% in the last seven days. The case rate among the over 60s is currently 13.3, while the positivity rate is 2.