Dean Kilbryde from PicksfromthePaddock.co.uk teams up with the Lancashire Evening Post to preview his best three bets of the day in today’s Paddocks Patent.
15:45 Epsom Downs
An intriguing race to begin today’s preview with seven scheduled to go to post. Last years winner Fattsota looks to defend his crown and is the only one in the field proven over course and distance. He beat Wigmore Hill by a neck in his last outing ten days ago, although that race was over twelve furlongs and he has only managed one win in nine attempts over todays distance.
Highland Knight arrives with the highest official rating of the seven and has been racing at a higher level than todays race but has only managed to place once in six attempts this year and could benefit from a drop down in class today.
The selection for this race is the forecasted favourite. With a 37.5% career win rate (finishing six out of eight races in the top three) Haafaguinea arrives here after a seven-month break, having last been seen over in Meydan in January where he performed admirably, placing in both races it attempted. He was last seen in the UK in September 2013 winning the class two Dubai Duty Free Handicap, and should be able to confirm this form despite the long awaited return.
Maoi Chinn Tire has been in sensational form this season with four wins and two seconds from six starts. He boasts a 66% win rate over todays distance and is sure to run another good race, likely going off as favourite but carries a 6lb penalty today.
Hot Spice has also shown great form this season, posting three wins from five attempts. His last attempt at todays distance saw him finish first, over three lengths ahead of the aforementioned Maoi Chinn Tire and he has gone on to win twice over sixteen furlongs since, beating the re-opposing Hallstatt on his latest start. In a tricky looking handicap he has the proven ability and stamina to continue winning ways today.
Others worthy of a mention include Hallstatt who is proven over todays distance and has two wins from five attempts this season, Underwritten who has finished in the top three in all six of his races this year (winning twice), and Mason Hindmarsh who is the only one with form over course and distance, but is looking for his first win in over a year.
Hot Spice (WIN)
Fury is the likely favourite in this race but cannot be backed with any confidence having only won once in eleven attempts over todays distance. He last won in May 2012 and although showed signs of improvement on his latest outing, would have to improve again to win today.
Jacks Revenge arrives on the back of a promising run when second at Galway two weeks ago, and has a good win rate over todays distance. However, like Fury, he hasn’t won for over two years and could find one too good again today.
End Of Line is another to consider in this race, a horse who has won one and finished second in three career starts so far. Although only third in his latest start, the winner of that race has since won again.
The selection for this race is Genius Boy, who finished last in his most recent outing when stepped up to Group 3 level, but had previously won four in a row in handicaps and should prove to be in the mix again at this level. He has an impressive 77% strike rate for finishing in the top three, with five of his nine career starts seeing him finish first past the post. Certainly one to side with in a contest of this nature.
Genius Boy (E/W)
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