How Preston North End plummeted into final day relegation fight with Hull City, Luton Town and others

It’s almost impossible to analyse Preston North End without delving into off-the-pitch problems and concerns, but we’ll park that for this particular piece.

The Lilywhites, having been clear of trouble for most of the 2024/25 season, are now at serious risk of being relegated to League One on the final day of it. Just a few weeks ago you could get PNE at 250/1 to go down. So, purely on the field, how on earth has it come to this?

A consistent weakness

It improved slightly last season with Liam Millar providing a spark on the left flank, but Preston North End’s attacking over the last few years has been a big problem. Frustrations at the wing-back system - which Paul Heckingbottom has attempted to make far more fluid - are completely understandable at this point. It is not exciting to watch and there has been little to suggest it is the answer for PNE to challenge at this level. Finding a suitable ‘wing-back’ has been a nightmare but even this season, with Kaine Kesler-Hayden seemingly the perfect one, it’s not worked as hoped.

Two players in the team are asked to stop opposition wingers at one end and provide a goal threat at the other. It’s such a big demand to place on them. Of course, managers have succeeded at this level with it but one threat Preston lack, badly, is in the air - both from set-pieces, and crosses in general. The likes of Robbie Brady and Sam Greenwood are more than capable of delivering quality into the box, but none of North End’s strikers are particularly dangerous in the air. You would not back any of them to tower above a defender and head home. And from set-plays - Heckingbottom has banged on about it all season - there is nowhere near enough trouble caused.

Couple that with a complete lack of 1v1 ability, and Preston’s stark creativity issues are no surprise. It’s a big effort for North End to get to the top end of the pitch but when they get there, opponents often have bodies behind the ball and attacks - for the reasons mentioned - easily peter out. Sam Greenwood and Mads Frokjaer have not been able to consistently impact play in the final third, either. PNE, as a team, do not have an obvious string to their bow - something they can lean on - when it comes to scoring goals. There will always be a call for the formation to change but the profile of players at Heckingbottom’s disposal - with Josh Bowler’s loan having not worked out and Jeppe Okkels at Aberdeen - will be the same.

There has, clearly, been a massive reliance on Emil Riis and Milutin Osmajic to score the goals this season. That is what they are there to do but others haven’t chipped in enough. Will Keane’s campaign has been a major blow; the number seven having top scored last season, but only managed three in the Championship this term. Only five other players in the squad have scored more than one league goal. They have also dried up for Riis and Osmajic of late. The Montenegrin has one goal in his last 10 league games while Riis - whose started one of the last five - has two in 10. There would be no better time than Saturday for them to fire.

Points thrown away

It’s often cited as one of the most important things in matches, and not an easy thing to do, but the first goal hasn’t felt a place of security for Preston this season. While they have taken the lead in all 10 of their victories this campaign, the Lilywhites have dropped 16 points from games where they’ve hit the front. By contrast, North End have conceded the first goal on 16 occasions and collected just four points in the form of four draws. PNE have never come from behind to win this season and they have not won 12 of the 22 matches, in which they’ve scored the first goal. Some of the dropped points have been excruciating: three-nil up and in complete control at Plymouth, the 94th minute at home to Cardiff, the 93rd minute at home to QPR and Leeds, the 89th minute away to QPR, the 86th minute away to Sunderland.

Decimated midfield

Injury blows are never easy to take but when they all come in on area of the pitch, it makes life doubly difficult for managers and teams. It is in midfield where North End have been hit the hardest, and the Lilywhites have undoubtedly suffered out-of-possession, as a result. A relentless intensity and aggression has been at the heart of Preston’s best performances this season; two players who bring that perhaps as well as anyone are Brad Potts and Ali McCann - who have been missing for an extended period.

Heckingbottom, upon arrival, spoke about regaining the ball high up the pitch as well. Duane Holmes was certainly strong in that regard, and his season ended in February, before the transfer to Houston Dynamo. Ryan Ledson missed Leeds, QPR and Hull, Sam Greenwood was absent at Hull and Plymouth, and Mads Frokjaer joined him on the sidelines for the Argyle clash. North End have still been putting a senior XI out there but aggression, tenacity, and the little touch of flair the team did have, has just been sucked out of it.

Costly decisions

It can become tiresome for managers to keep mentioning it but, particularly before the Plymouth game, North End’s manager took a us-versus-them approach - regularly referencing back to the refereeing decisions which have gone against PNE this season. Every team will feel hard done by over the course of the campaign and it’s not an easy job for the officials. But, Heckingbottom is more than entitled to feel that his team should never be in this final day fight.

And the fact is they wouldn’t be, had even one of those frustrating decisions gone Preston’s way. If this season does end in disaster then the first penalty decision at Hull City, alongside the poor mistakes North End have made themselves, will be a moment to look back on. PNE had the relegation-threatened hosts where they wanted them and there was no contact on Joe Gelhardt from Mads Frokjaer, whose foot was hardly high. Hull levelled, the stadium woke up and they went on to win.

Goals against

Freddie Woodman rarely escaped criticism but the downturn in results since the number one’s absence has been pretty alarming. The goalkeeper has been out since the March international break, with PNE picking up two points from the seven games and conceding 13 goals. In the seven matches before that Preston had let in six goals. There have been few obvious clangers from Dai Cornell - more question marks over some of the efforts that have gone in - and the Welshman has made 15 saves. Compare that to the last seven games played by Woodman: the number one made 17 saves, though seven of those came away to Coventry City. Cornell probably feels he could’ve done better with some attempts to come his way, but he may well argue the defence hasn’t protected him brilliantly, either.

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