'We’re in the bizarre position of wanting Covid to stay, at least for a little while': Low coronavirus transmission rate could jeopardise vaccine trial

An Oxford University vaccine trial’s chances of success could be halved due to how quickly the coronavirus is fading in the UK, it has been reported.
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Oxford University’s Jenner Institute and the Oxford Vaccine Group began development on a coronavirus vaccine in January, using a virus taken from chimpanzees.

Following an initial phase of testing on 160 healthy volunteers between 18 and 55, the study is now set to progress to phases two and three, which involve increasing the testing to up to 10,260 people and expanding the age range of volunteers to include children and the elderly.

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But a leading member of the project has told The Sunday Telegraph that the low transmission of Covid-19 in the community leaves the trial with only a 50% chance of success.

File screen grab dated 23/04/20 showing a person being injected as part of human trials in the UK for a coronavirus vaccine at the start of Oxford University vaccine trials. Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, has said results of a human trial of a coronavirus vaccine could be available by the middle of June, and the challenge now is to be able to manufacture at scale once it is approved by the regulators (Picture: PA Media)File screen grab dated 23/04/20 showing a person being injected as part of human trials in the UK for a coronavirus vaccine at the start of Oxford University vaccine trials. Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, has said results of a human trial of a coronavirus vaccine could be available by the middle of June, and the challenge now is to be able to manufacture at scale once it is approved by the regulators (Picture: PA Media)
File screen grab dated 23/04/20 showing a person being injected as part of human trials in the UK for a coronavirus vaccine at the start of Oxford University vaccine trials. Professor Sir John Bell, regius professor of medicine at Oxford University, has said results of a human trial of a coronavirus vaccine could be available by the middle of June, and the challenge now is to be able to manufacture at scale once it is approved by the regulators (Picture: PA Media)

Professor Adrian Hill, director of the Jenner Institute, told the paper that if the virus’s spread is too low not enough of the volunteers will catch it and the trial will be unable to definitively say if the vaccine works.

“It’s a race against the virus disappearing, and against time,” Professor Hill said.

“We said earlier in the year that there was an 80% chance of developing an effective vaccine by September. But at the moment, there’s

a 50% chance that we get no result at all.

“We’re in the bizarre position of wanting Covid to stay, at least for a little while.”

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