The infected are on the doorstep, so why is Chorley faring better than its neighbours?

In George Romero's Day of the Dead, a zombie apocalypse has all but ended the world.
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Humans are vastly outnumbered by the undead and live in barricaded camps and underground bunkers - 'bubbles', if you'd like.

They live in relative harmony as the infected claw at the chain-link fence.

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While Covid-19 will not by any stretch of the imagination spell the end of mankind, the 1985 horror film is an easy albeit catastrophic metaphor for Chorley's current plight.

The town stands alone, surrounded by places with hordes of coronavirus patients, as its own 40,000 residents are able to lead a relatively normal life.

On its doorstep, outbreaks have led to increased restrictions in Preston, Blackburn, Bolton, and Manchester.

But in the absence of any physical barriers, just why is Chorley faring better than its neighbours?

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Well Lancashire's director of public health, the man responsible for keeping a close eye on infection rates across the county so any surge can be tackled quickly, believes there are two reasons.

Chorley's Astley Hall, pictured in March shortly after the national lockdown was imposed, and, inset, Lancashire's director of public health Dr Sakthi KarunanithiChorley's Astley Hall, pictured in March shortly after the national lockdown was imposed, and, inset, Lancashire's director of public health Dr Sakthi Karunanithi
Chorley's Astley Hall, pictured in March shortly after the national lockdown was imposed, and, inset, Lancashire's director of public health Dr Sakthi Karunanithi

People following the rules is "definitely one of the explanations", Dr Sakthi Karunanithi said.

"The other explanation is the virus itself seems like it's clustering in small localities.

"It's not like the flu where it spreads widely.

"It remains in clusters of social contacts and households.

"Because we don't have that many cases in Chorley, it's not spreading fast. That's the main explanation.

"Clearly, the way people behave is a major factor.

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"The virus doesn't see the boundaries, so we should always remember that we are still in the pandemic - and surrounded by areas of high cases - so it's doubly important we protect Chorley from the rise.

"A lot of people across the county are still very, very susceptible to the virus, especially in an area of low infection, so yes, Chorley is at risk like any other places that have lower rates of infection, but it's very encouraging that Chorley still remains at a very low level.

"That's big credit to the hard work the people of Chorley are doing in managing and maintaining the guidance and keeping away from each other."

But the foot cannot be taken off the gas, with the infection rate in Chorley still growing.

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Health chiefs are watching carefully, checking figures daily and unafraid to impose stricter measures if they feel they are needed.

While there were seven new cases recorded in the seven days to August 25, there were 12 in the seven days to September 1.

"It's kind of rising but I am really content with the level of incidents in Chorley. Although we don't want any cases, Chorley seems to be doing brilliantly well," Dr Karunanithi said.

"People are also increasingly coming forward for testing, but the testing could be done more.

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"Maybe that's a message: If you are symptomatic, please don't hesitate to get yourself checked."

The reopening of society, including schools where social distancing is almost impossible, will logically lead to a spike in cases.

However the health secretary Matt Hancock admitted at the weekend that a swell of new infections across the UK - with nearly 3,000 noted on Sunday, the largest daily figure since May - was "concerning".

He said: "The cases are predominantly among younger people, but we’ve seen in other countries across the world and in Europe this sort of rise in the cases amongst younger people leading to a rise across the population as a whole.

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“It’s so important that people don’t allow this illness to infect their grandparents and to lead to the sorts of problems that we saw earlier in the year.”

Shadow health secretary Jonathan Ashworth said the increase was a "stark reminder that there is no room for complacency in tackling the spread of the virus".

He also criticised the Government, adding: "This increase, combined with the ongoing testing fiasco where ill people are told to drive for miles for tests, and the poor performance of the contact tracing system, needs an explanation from ministers."

The Department of Health and Social Care said it was unable to put a minister up for an interview to discuss the biggest public health crisis in living memory.

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Paul Hunter, a professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia, said the UK could be entering "a period of exponential growth" in the spread of the virus, while Yvonne Doyle, medical director at Public Health England, said most of the new cases are people tested in the community, with the situation being monitored.

She said: "This is a reminder of the continued risk from this virus.

"People should continue to follow social distancing rules, wash their hands regularly, and wear a face covering in enclosed spaces."

Dr Karunanithi said: "The most important thing is people's behaviour, both businesses as well as the residents.

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"The particular behaviour we really, really need to remember throughout is hand-washing, wearing a face covering, and the two-metre distance, but particularly the social contacts."

He urged people to avoid meeting others indoors, especially inside homes, pubs, and restaurants, "as much as possible".

"Indoors is higher risk than outdoors," he said. "People meeting others from different households."

Despite the sharp increase in cases, the number of deaths has not increased in kind.

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The Government said a total of 41,551 people had died in the UK within 28 days of testing positive for Covid-19 as of Sunday, an increase of two on the day before.

Prof Hunter added: “Fortunately, the daily reported numbers of deaths due to Covid-19 remain very low, with a seven-day rolling average of just seven deaths per day.

“However, with the new approach to recording deaths, it is difficult to be confident that there are timely statistics.”

However, should Chorley find itself in need of local restrictions, a "very well rehearsed plan" will be put into action.

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Dr Karunanithi said: "That would kick in and people will be warned and informed. We would do more testing in the area, and we would support businesses to be Covid-secure.

"For those which aren't Covid-secure, we would take legal action.

"It's more of a lockdown on the virus than a lockdown on our lives and livelihoods. That's what we are seeking to achieve, really."

HOW LIKELY IS A SECOND WAVE?

Dr Karunanithi said: "In the next few months the cases are going to go up, simply because the weather is changing and we have lifted quite a lot of the restrictions already, and schools, colleges, and universities [are opening].

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"There's more chance of people being in contact with each other compared to the past, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if the case numbers go up.

"So we should all be prepared for that.

"But whether that will be the same spike or same impact that we've had in the past is very unlikely.

"Partly because we know a lot more about the virus, we are getting used to all the precautions and preventative measures, and there is a vaccine in play.

"It's not available yet but the Test and Trace programme is up and running, and there are medicines that might be useful to prevent more severe illness or death.

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"I don't anticipate the same levels of deaths, for example, but clearly the winter is a major factor and that's why it's important to have a flu vaccine and all the winter precautions.

"But we are better prepared for the next wave, if it does happen.

"It looks to me that there is going to be a surge in the number of cases, at least for the next few months, before it comes down again."