Why Preston North End's play-off picture is so precarious with Blackburn Rovers, Millwall, Norwich City, Sunderland and Coventry City all giving chase

It is an impressive rise for a side that have spent parts of this season in the bottom half, albeit brief, and over their last six matches, the Lilywhites sit top of the form table. Five wins and just one loss in their last six has been enough to catapult them up the table – even runaway leaders Burnley trail North End – and whilst they’re level with the play-off places, they’re level with both fifth and sixth as Millwall, Blackburn Rovers and Ryan Lowe’s men all share the same 62 points total.

But those three are not the only side gunning for two places, there are six sides that all have a chance of sneaking into the post season, even if remote. Sunderland in 10th are just four points behind those currently in pole position, and with 10 fixtures still to come between now and the end of the season that contain a side between the Black Cats’ 10th spot and Burnley at the top of the league, there are plenty of twists up ahead. Five of those fixtures include two of the six teams in the run-in. In full, they are:

5th – Millwall 62 (+7)

6th – Blackburn 62 (-2)

7th – PNE 62 (-4)

8th – Norwich 61 (+12)

9th – Coventry City 59 (+6)

10th – Sunderland 58 (+8)

North End have five games to go to pull away from at least four of the six, but how many points will be enough for them? The maximum they can reach is 77 points, but if they do that it means Millwall and Blackburn will not hit maximum points as Lowe’s side still have to face the fifth and sixth placed teams. That’s why there are so many twists still to come, none of Millwall, Rovers and North End can all get maximum points – and that also opens the door for those below them.

Over the last 18 seasons – since PNE got to the play-off final in 2005 – it has taken an average of 73.9 points to find yourself in the top six in the Championship. Of course, that is not a perfect rule and as little as 68 has been enough (12-13) or as much as 80 has been required (16-17).

74.2 has been the average over the last five seasons but looking at the current table, it seems unlikely that more than four wins will be required. Provided they come against the right sides, such as Millwall this weekend, Blackburn next Saturday and Sunderland on the final day, nine points might be enough for North End.

When it comes to strength of schedule, Millwall have the most favourable end to the season according to the current league table. The average league position of the sides they have to face are: Millwall (15.4), Blackburn (6.8), PNE (7.4), Norwich (14.4), Coventry (13.8) and Sunderland (13.2).

Millwall

PNE (H), Birmingham City (H), Wigan Athletic (A), Blackpool (A), Blackburn Rovers (H)

Blackburn Rovers

Hull City (H), Coventry City (H), PNE (A), Burnley (H), Luton Town (H), Millwall (A)

PNE

Millwall (A), Swansea City (A), Blackburn Rovers (H), Sheff Utd (A), Sunderland (H)

Norwich City

Middlesbrough (A), QPR (A), Swansea City (H), WBA (A), Blackpool (H)

Coventry City

QPR (A), Blackburn Rovers (A), Reading (H), Birmingham City (H), Middlesbrough (A)

Sunderland

Birmingham City (H), Huddersfield Town (H), West Brom (A), Watford (H), PNE (A)

With one of the tougher run-ins, if PNE are to get into the play-offs, they will have to do it the hard way. But this is the Championship, and there will be surprises on the way. They have put themselves in a good position so far and are the side currently with momentum, which can go a long way in the closing stages of the season and as well as in the play-offs.

They need only to match others around them for the most part, picking up a win against either the Lions or Rovers would essentially be a six-pointer for them, and would also be a huge morale boost and a boost to their credentials.

It’s in North End’s hands, with Millwall and Blackburn to come. They have a goalscorer in form in Tom Cannon, a defence that looks confident at the moment and midfielders who are pulling the strings. But can they keep that up?