Edward Leahy from PicksfromthePaddock.co.uk teams up with The Lancashire Evening Post to preview his best three bets of the day.
Our first selection runs in a two mile handicap hurdle at Stratford where Jamie Snowden’s To The Sky heads the betting. While he comes in to this race on the back of a win, that came over the larger obstacles, his last few runs over hurdles have come at seller/claiming company and he has struggled. While he may win this I’d be prepared to look for a bit of e/w value elsewhere.
The Paul Henderson trained Mount Vesuvius is one who catches the eye at a bit of a price. He has mainly been doing his running at class three and class four level. In fact his last win came at class three level and I think he could possibly be a class or two above these. He has only finished out of the frame once when running at this grade. With a clear round he should at worst be capable of running in to a place.
Of the remainder Iktiview is on a competitive mark and relatively unexposed, so open to improvement. While Seaside Shuffle is another who looks capable of competing for minor honours.
Mount Vesuvius (E/W)
16.35 Ffos Las
Our next selection comes in a low grade handicap at Ffos Las in the shape of William Hogarth. While he is on a long losing sequence stretching back to August 2011, he came close to breaking that sequence on his last outing. That was his first start for Brian Ellison and he will be hoping he can end that losing streak today. The trip on his last start was a bit on the sharp side but today’s distance looks far more suitable. The five pound claimer has also been replaced by the vastly more experienced Richard Hughes so a bold show can be expected today.
It is hard to see what will beat William Hogarth in this as the rest have got serious question marks against them. Reach The Beach has not seen the winners enclosure since she won two junior bumpers in 2012. Just Duchess has not shown a great deal in nine starts and is still a maiden. The biggest danger could come from Pindora who at least hinted at ability, last time out.
William Hogarth (WIN)
For my last selection we travel to Lingfield for a one mile four handicap, run on the all weather.
The ex-Barney Curley trained Giant Sequoia looks to head the betting here and should go close once more. He got an eleven pound rise for success over course and distance just over a week ago but only carries a six pound penalty. Five pounds of that is reduced by Louis Stewards amateur claim so he practically runs off the same mark. While he is capable of following up again here he offers very little in the way of value. For that reason I would be prepared to look to something at an each way price.
The one that fits the bill is the Noel Quinlan trained Fire In Babylon. While his last four runs have been disappointing, they all came at class five level and this represents a fifteen pounds drop in grade. In fact all four of his wins have come at this level so he should really welcome the drop back in class here. He runs off a mark of 54 but his last two wins have come off of marks of 58 and 55. He also has the assistance of a five pound claimer which could give him upwards of eight pounds to spare. The blinkers are replaced by cheek pieces so a bold show can be expected, in what looks a relatively weak event.
Of the rest Hamble should at least be involved for minor honours, while the unexposed three year old Alba Verde is open to plenty of improvement.
Fire In Babylon (E/W)
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