Poll shows key Lancashire gains for Tories
David Cameron's prospects of a landslide victory in Lancashire at next year's election have been boosted by a new poll which shows he is on course to snatch a string of key seats in the county.
Chorley, Lancashire West, South Ribble and the new Lancaster and Fleetwood seat are all on course to fall to the Conservatives, according to a poll of marginal constituencies.
However, the YouGov survey shows that David Cameron's advance in the North West is "faltering", with the projected swing between Labour and the Tories lower than it was 12 months ago – and the overall projected majority down from 146 last year to 70 this year.
The poll of 33,000 voters in 238 marginal constituencies around the country was analysed by political website PoliticsHome.com.
The website's assessment of the polling results stated: "The North West was one of the Conservatives' better regions in our 2008 survey and we predicted several gains beyond those seats we polled.
"This year they have fallen back significantly as more support goes to 'other party' candidates.
"It remains a very fruitful area for them with a projected 17 gains, but their advance is faltering."
The poll projected a 9% swing from Labour to the Tories in the North West, down from 13% last year but not enough of a fall to save any Labour seats.
It puts the Tories on 40 points, Labour on 29 and the Liberal Democrats on 17.
If that result was repeated in the general election, the Tories would not only win top targets like South Ribble, but also oust Chorley Labour MP Lindsay Hoyle and win the new seat on Lancaster and Fleetwood, which has a notional 4,056 Labour majority.
The poll did not include any projection for the Morecambe and Lunesdale seat, where the current Labour MP Geraldine Smith has a notional 4,935 majority.
Conservative central office has been channelling thousands of pounds into Lancashire's target seats to fund campaigning and to support candidates in what the party acknowledges is crucial to the outcome of the election.
Labour politicians point to the fact the swing is lower than last year, suggesting the Tory leader is yet to convince northern voters.
Mr Hoyle said: "Polls come and go but what people in Chorley will have to make a decision, do they want to return Lindsay Hoyle or do they not and that is a decision they will have to take on polling day.
"I would like to think that I have been a good MP for Chorley, working hard to speak up for the people of Chorley and I think people are looking for something different from party politics and hopefully I will get the support of people in Chorley."
The poll suggests the Tories would win 360 seats, Labour 199 and, although it concludes the Lib Dems are "increasingly holding their own", they would still drop from 63 to 55.
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