Vauxhall's Merseyside plant should survive the worst of any fallout from the financial woes of parent company General Motors (GM) in America, motor industry experts predict.
Vauxhall's prospects in the UK and in Europe were not as perilous as GM's in the United States, said Garel Rhys, of the Cardiff University Business School.
Of all Vauxhall's European plants, the most at risk was probably Antwerp in Belgium, with E
llesmere Port on Merseyside, where the Astra model is made, comparatively safe, he said.
But Prof Rhys, who is emeritus professor of Cardiff's centre for automotive industry research, said that all car companies would suffer from an expected huge downturn in sales. Shares in GM in the United States have hit an all-time low amid fears for the future of the company.
Prof Rhys said: "GM's position in Europe is much better than its position in North America, but sales of vehicles are falling and this is bound to lead to consolidation and rationalisation.
"This rationalisation could include plant closures and the GM plant in Europe that is probably most under threat is Antwerp.
"I think Ellesmere Port would only come into the frame (for cutbacks or closure) if GM bosses decided to regard Antwerp favourably."
He said that a number of companies, including Skoda, Mazda and Volkswagen, were doing well but that all would fall foul of the big downturn that has begun to engulf the motor industry.
Prof Rhys went on: "This is not so much a recession for the motor industry but a deep depression.
"UK new-car sales are likely to drop to 1.8 million next year and could be as low as 1.6 million in 2011 and in 2012.
"It could be 2012 or even 2013 before annual sales get back to their 2007 levels."
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